Hey, Who Left the Window Open?

I feel the Vikings 'window of opportunity' to win a Super Bowl is open.

But for for how long?

Some teams, through good drafting, player retention, trading, and free agency keep their window perpetually open, like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New England Patriots. Most teams go through cycles, kind of like the Vikings are right now, where they amass enough talent to seem like a legitimate championship caliber team, then fall into mediocrity for a period of time, and then rise again. Other than the Vikings, Tennessee, the New York Giants, and Seattle seem to best fit this mold—but there are a lot of teams that seem to go through these cycles. There are one year wonder teams, like the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears. Finally, there are teams that seem like their window of opportunity has been nailed shut and sealed with epoxy; Detroit fans, I’m looking your way.

So how long will the Vikings window of opportunity stay open with this current roster?

Let’s try and figure it out. I’m going to look at the current starters, and most of the primary back-ups. I’ll consider their age and then project when they might need to draft a player to look at as eventual replacement. I’m also going to throw in the first three draft picks from the 2009 class, as everyone after round three is what I consider a complementary player, whereas the top end guys are expected to start at some point. If you disagree with the methodology, I’m open to hearing another way to figure it out.

This post will look at the offensive side of the ball, and the next post will address defense.

QB:
Tarvaris Jackson, 26
Sage Rosenfels, 31
John David Booty (he said booty), 24

A good quarterback, along with effective roster replenishment, is the key component for maintaining an extended window of opportunity. Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Donovan McNabb have been the common ingredient in their respective teams’ sustained runs of excellence. If Jackson or Booty pan out and raise their game to an elite level, the Vikings will be in business for years to come, especially when you consider the relative youth at the rest of the skill positions. The window will be smaller if it’s Rosenfels, simply for the fact he is older. If not, then they may explore other options. Like, ahem, He Who Shall Not Be Named, trying to draft a franchise QB, trying to trade for one, or hoping one becomes available in free agency.

Projection: If Jackson works out, 7 years. If Rosenfels works out, 4 years. If neither works out, QB window is year to year, if not closed.

RB:

Adrian Peterson, 23
Chester Taylor, 30
Naufahu Tahi, 29

At his current rate Adrian Peterson will go down as one of the greatest running backs in NFL history, and he’s only 23. Running backs take an enormous amount of punishment, though, and their shelf life is shorter than other position players. LaDainian Tomlinson is approaching the dreaded age of 30, and he has begun the long, slow, decline. His numbers are down, and his injuries are up. Let’s say Peterson has 3-4 tremendous seasons left in him, 6-7 productive seasons. As good as Peterson has been, it’s easy to overlook the contributions of Chester Taylor. Brought in to be ‘the Guy’ by Chilly in 2006, Taylor had one of the most productive seasons ever for a Vikings running back, including the longest run from scrimmage in the NFL, a 95 yard TD scamper in a romp over Seattle. More importantly, when the Vikings drafted Taylor, he could’ve been a dick about it and demanded a trade, but he’s been a team guy and excelled in the role of the third down/change of pace back. In his current role, Taylor has a couple of years left, but will probably want one last chance as a starter somewhere, so depth will be an issue in a year or two. And as exciting as the one yard swing pass to Naufau Tahi is, the NFL fullback is becoming about as irrelevant as the Republican Party these days. Yeah, they’ll need someone to eventually replace Tahi, but in this day and age it’s a fairly nameless, faceless position.

Projection: 5-7 years for frontline production, two years for depth.

WR/TE:
Bernard Berrian, 29
Sidney Rice, 23
Percy Harvin, 21
Bobby Wade, 28
Visanthe Shiancoe, 29
Jim Kleinsasser, 32
Garrett Mills, 25

I like the mix of youth and experience that the Vikings have at both receiver positions. With the WR corps, the Vikings have the potential for long term success. Percy Harvin can be a legitimate deep threat, and Sidney Rice has the physical tools to be a devastating possession/ red zone threat in the mold of Cris Carter. He had the typical sophomore slump last season, but he was also battling a knee injury for most of the season. He needs to step up and take control of the #2 WR position in training camp this season. Bernard Berrian is the current deep threat, and brought legitimacy to the Vikings WR corps not seen since the days of Moss and Carter. He has a few good years left, and is the type of veteran presence that should be beneficial to the skilled but raw Harvin. Bobby Wade has developed into a decent slot guy. He’s not ever going to be a game changer, or a consistent move-the-chains type guy, but he’s a good complimentary player that has several years of decent production left. Harvin is the wildcard. He can either be a Troy Williamson flame-out, or a Randy Moss jackpot. My guess is that he’ll be somewhere in between; a plus Reggie Bush. Worst case is Harvin is a bust and Rice never figures it out, I give it three years with Berrian and Wade as the top guys with a constant parade of the Derrick Alexander and Robert Ferguson-types trying to fill in as required. Tight end is a similar situation. I tip my cap to Brad Childress on the Shiancoe signing; he has emerged as a reliable, legitimate target after having what seemed like an incurable case of the dropsies when he first took the field. He still has three or four years of solid production left, and Garrett Mills is a guy that has that ’it’ about him. He has limited experience, but on the rare occasion he caught a pass, or I noticed him on the field, he stood out. I love Jim Kleinsasser, but he’s never been an offensive threat. His job is to block, and he does it quite well. He’s on the downside of his fine career, and I think it’s right and appropriate that he will probably retire as a Minnesota Viking.

WR Projection: If Harvin and Rice get untracked, the Vikings have 10 years of production at wide receiver. If Harvin is a bust and Rice never figures it out, I give it three years with Berrian and Wade as the top guys, and a constant parade of the Derrick Alexander and Robert Ferguson-types trying to fill in as required.

TE Projection: Shiancoe has anywhere from 3-5 years with Garrett Mills on the rise to make a seamless transition. Call it 8-10 years with a big, blocking TE type to take over for Kleinsasser in the next two years.

Offensive Line:

Bryant McKinnie, 30
Steve Hutchinson, 32
John Sullivan, 24
Anthony Herrera, 29
Ryan Cook, 26
Phil Loadholt, 23
Artis Hicks, 31

A solid offensive line is the unsung but critical ingredient to take a team to the next level. The Vikings have one of the five best offensive lines in the NFL, but if you look, it’s getting up there in age. Initially, I was against letting Matt Birk go, but if he had stayed, 80% of the starting line would have been either 29 or older. Time marches on in the NFL, and in looking at this through the age prism, letting Birk go and letting Sullivan transition in with experience to his immediate right and left is pretty smart…as long as Sullivan pans out. McKinnie and Hutch each have about 3-5 years left. For whatever reason, linemen take as much punishment as anyone, but (at least anecdotally to me) seem to have a more prolonged career. Sullivan has 10 years, Herrera 5 or 6, and Loadholt and Cook will be around 7-10 years as well. Hutch is a road grader, but I would look for the Vikings to find his replacement in the next draft or two.

OL Projection: Short term, the line will begin the left side transition in the next 2 years, with full turnover of all five positions (counting Birk and assuming Loadholt replaces Cook) in four. So until the next generation of snot blowin’ big uglies line up and hit someone, this is the shortest window. I’ll give it three years average, with the big hits coming in the McKinnie and Hutch replacements. But assuming the replacements adequately fill in for the current crop, this will be one of the most stable units in the NFL for years to come.

So looking at the offense, the Minnesota Vikings are averaging about a three or four year window, but it has one huge caveat: effective, championship-caliber quarterback play. If the Vikings cannot get that from Jackson, Rosenfels, or somebody else, this will be a talented team that will not advance far in the playoffs.

If they do get it, you have to consider the Vikings on the short list of teams with legitimate championship aspirations.