Friday, May 15, 2009

Window of Opportunity, Part II

A few days ago, I looked at what kind of window of opportunity the Vikings had for a serious championship run. Today, I want to continue down that path with a look at the defense.

DL:

Pat Williams, 37
Kevin Williams, 28
Jared Allen, 27
Kenechi Udeze, 26
Fred Evans, 26
Jimmy Kennedy, 30
Brian Robison, 26
Ray Edwards, 24

The Vikings defensive line is almost as dominant as the halcyon days of the legendary Purple People Eaters. You don’t run on them, and quarterbacks drop back to pass at their own risk. They are at least as effective as the Keith Millard-Chris Doleman defensive lines of the early 1990’s, but the anchor of the line, Pat Williams, is going to be 37. This line didn’t become dominant until ‘Phat Pat’ was signed, and it became elite when the Vikes traded for Jared Allen. Pat Williams seems ageless, but he isn’t, and the Vikings need to look towards his eventual replacement. There isn’t another Pat Williams currently on the roster, so something will need to be done. When he is out of the lineup, the Vikings are not dominant as a run defense. The rest of the line is in their prime, and if Kenechi Udeze can get back his strength and quickness, he will be a force in 2009, and will take this defensive line to another level. Kevin Williams and Jared Allen have at least 5 more years playing together at an elite level; throw in a healthy Udeze, and these guys will be a lot of fun to watch.

Projection: 1-2 years, as the next Pat Williams needs to be identified. If the Williams transition is seamless, 5-7 years of high end productivity.

LB:

Chad Greenway, 26
EJ Henderson, 29
Ben Leber, 31
Heath Farwell, 28
David Herron, 25

The front line starters for the Vikings are one of the best LB units in the NFL. They complement each other well, and are a solid mix of youth and veteran leadership. But the replacements currently on the roster are not considered NFL-caliber starters, as the signings of ex-Vikings Napoleon Harris and Dontarrious Thomas showed. Ben Leber is north of 30, EJ Henderson is approaching 30 and has an injury history, and Chad Greenway has developed into a quality NFL LB after a season ending knee injury as a rookie. I thought that LB would be addressed early in the 2009 draft, but you can’t argue with Percy Harvin and Phil Loadholt. LB’s can be had in free agency, and it should be a position of need next year in the draft.

Projection: 2 years, but they need depth right now. Not re-signing Harris or Thomas could turn out to be a big mistake if one of the top three goes down.

DB:

Antoine Winfield, 32
Cedric Griffin, 27
Marcus McCauley, 26
Tyrell Johnson, 24
Madieu Williams, 28
Karl Paymah, 27
Asher Allen, 21

I love Antoine Winfield. I mean, I started a blog called The Purple Buckeye, for God Sakes. Winfield has been a mainstay in the defensive backfield, and has been the best all-around CB in the NFL for about his entire time in Minnesota. I hope he retires a Viking, but with contract extension talks stalled, that seems up in the air. But he’s north of 30, and the Vikings used a third round pick on Asher Allen, so Minnesota is laying the groundwork for Winfield’s eventual replacement. The Vikings wisely inked Cedric Griffin to an extension, meaning that his productive years will be spent as a Viking. For the safeties, Tyrell Johnson has already taken over for Darren Sharper and will be a fixture for several years, and Madieu Williams has 3-4 years of above average production left. Overall, this unit looks pretty good, as long as Allen can get close to the level of THE Antoine Winfield, a tall order indeed.

Projection: Winfield will probably be replaced after 2009, 3-5 years after that.

There is no need to raise the alarm yet, but the defense, which has done most of the heavy lifting on this team during the Brad Childress era, is the side of the ball where the window opening is currently the smallest. The line, linebackers, and defensive backfield will need to be addressed, both for front-line starters and depth, especially in the linebacking corps. If the starters can stay relatively healthy in 2009 and 2010, this defense, with a ferocious defensive line that can neuter a running game and punish a quarterback that dare try to pass, can take this team a long way. But Ben Leber, Antoine Winfield, and Pat Williams, key veterans that made this defense what it is, will be replaced in the next few years, and who comes in behind them will largely determine how competitive the Vikings will be.

Along with the play of the quarterback.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Hey, Who Left the Window Open?

I feel the Vikings 'window of opportunity' to win a Super Bowl is open.

But for for how long?

Some teams, through good drafting, player retention, trading, and free agency keep their window perpetually open, like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New England Patriots. Most teams go through cycles, kind of like the Vikings are right now, where they amass enough talent to seem like a legitimate championship caliber team, then fall into mediocrity for a period of time, and then rise again. Other than the Vikings, Tennessee, the New York Giants, and Seattle seem to best fit this mold—but there are a lot of teams that seem to go through these cycles. There are one year wonder teams, like the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears. Finally, there are teams that seem like their window of opportunity has been nailed shut and sealed with epoxy; Detroit fans, I’m looking your way.

So how long will the Vikings window of opportunity stay open with this current roster?

Let’s try and figure it out. I’m going to look at the current starters, and most of the primary back-ups. I’ll consider their age and then project when they might need to draft a player to look at as eventual replacement. I’m also going to throw in the first three draft picks from the 2009 class, as everyone after round three is what I consider a complementary player, whereas the top end guys are expected to start at some point. If you disagree with the methodology, I’m open to hearing another way to figure it out.

This post will look at the offensive side of the ball, and the next post will address defense.

QB:
Tarvaris Jackson, 26
Sage Rosenfels, 31
John David Booty (he said booty), 24

A good quarterback, along with effective roster replenishment, is the key component for maintaining an extended window of opportunity. Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Donovan McNabb have been the common ingredient in their respective teams’ sustained runs of excellence. If Jackson or Booty pan out and raise their game to an elite level, the Vikings will be in business for years to come, especially when you consider the relative youth at the rest of the skill positions. The window will be smaller if it’s Rosenfels, simply for the fact he is older. If not, then they may explore other options. Like, ahem, He Who Shall Not Be Named, trying to draft a franchise QB, trying to trade for one, or hoping one becomes available in free agency.

Projection: If Jackson works out, 7 years. If Rosenfels works out, 4 years. If neither works out, QB window is year to year, if not closed.

RB:

Adrian Peterson, 23
Chester Taylor, 30
Naufahu Tahi, 29

At his current rate Adrian Peterson will go down as one of the greatest running backs in NFL history, and he’s only 23. Running backs take an enormous amount of punishment, though, and their shelf life is shorter than other position players. LaDainian Tomlinson is approaching the dreaded age of 30, and he has begun the long, slow, decline. His numbers are down, and his injuries are up. Let’s say Peterson has 3-4 tremendous seasons left in him, 6-7 productive seasons. As good as Peterson has been, it’s easy to overlook the contributions of Chester Taylor. Brought in to be ‘the Guy’ by Chilly in 2006, Taylor had one of the most productive seasons ever for a Vikings running back, including the longest run from scrimmage in the NFL, a 95 yard TD scamper in a romp over Seattle. More importantly, when the Vikings drafted Taylor, he could’ve been a dick about it and demanded a trade, but he’s been a team guy and excelled in the role of the third down/change of pace back. In his current role, Taylor has a couple of years left, but will probably want one last chance as a starter somewhere, so depth will be an issue in a year or two. And as exciting as the one yard swing pass to Naufau Tahi is, the NFL fullback is becoming about as irrelevant as the Republican Party these days. Yeah, they’ll need someone to eventually replace Tahi, but in this day and age it’s a fairly nameless, faceless position.

Projection: 5-7 years for frontline production, two years for depth.

WR/TE:
Bernard Berrian, 29
Sidney Rice, 23
Percy Harvin, 21
Bobby Wade, 28
Visanthe Shiancoe, 29
Jim Kleinsasser, 32
Garrett Mills, 25

I like the mix of youth and experience that the Vikings have at both receiver positions. With the WR corps, the Vikings have the potential for long term success. Percy Harvin can be a legitimate deep threat, and Sidney Rice has the physical tools to be a devastating possession/ red zone threat in the mold of Cris Carter. He had the typical sophomore slump last season, but he was also battling a knee injury for most of the season. He needs to step up and take control of the #2 WR position in training camp this season. Bernard Berrian is the current deep threat, and brought legitimacy to the Vikings WR corps not seen since the days of Moss and Carter. He has a few good years left, and is the type of veteran presence that should be beneficial to the skilled but raw Harvin. Bobby Wade has developed into a decent slot guy. He’s not ever going to be a game changer, or a consistent move-the-chains type guy, but he’s a good complimentary player that has several years of decent production left. Harvin is the wildcard. He can either be a Troy Williamson flame-out, or a Randy Moss jackpot. My guess is that he’ll be somewhere in between; a plus Reggie Bush. Worst case is Harvin is a bust and Rice never figures it out, I give it three years with Berrian and Wade as the top guys with a constant parade of the Derrick Alexander and Robert Ferguson-types trying to fill in as required. Tight end is a similar situation. I tip my cap to Brad Childress on the Shiancoe signing; he has emerged as a reliable, legitimate target after having what seemed like an incurable case of the dropsies when he first took the field. He still has three or four years of solid production left, and Garrett Mills is a guy that has that ’it’ about him. He has limited experience, but on the rare occasion he caught a pass, or I noticed him on the field, he stood out. I love Jim Kleinsasser, but he’s never been an offensive threat. His job is to block, and he does it quite well. He’s on the downside of his fine career, and I think it’s right and appropriate that he will probably retire as a Minnesota Viking.

WR Projection: If Harvin and Rice get untracked, the Vikings have 10 years of production at wide receiver. If Harvin is a bust and Rice never figures it out, I give it three years with Berrian and Wade as the top guys, and a constant parade of the Derrick Alexander and Robert Ferguson-types trying to fill in as required.

TE Projection: Shiancoe has anywhere from 3-5 years with Garrett Mills on the rise to make a seamless transition. Call it 8-10 years with a big, blocking TE type to take over for Kleinsasser in the next two years.

Offensive Line:

Bryant McKinnie, 30
Steve Hutchinson, 32
John Sullivan, 24
Anthony Herrera, 29
Ryan Cook, 26
Phil Loadholt, 23
Artis Hicks, 31

A solid offensive line is the unsung but critical ingredient to take a team to the next level. The Vikings have one of the five best offensive lines in the NFL, but if you look, it’s getting up there in age. Initially, I was against letting Matt Birk go, but if he had stayed, 80% of the starting line would have been either 29 or older. Time marches on in the NFL, and in looking at this through the age prism, letting Birk go and letting Sullivan transition in with experience to his immediate right and left is pretty smart…as long as Sullivan pans out. McKinnie and Hutch each have about 3-5 years left. For whatever reason, linemen take as much punishment as anyone, but (at least anecdotally to me) seem to have a more prolonged career. Sullivan has 10 years, Herrera 5 or 6, and Loadholt and Cook will be around 7-10 years as well. Hutch is a road grader, but I would look for the Vikings to find his replacement in the next draft or two.

OL Projection: Short term, the line will begin the left side transition in the next 2 years, with full turnover of all five positions (counting Birk and assuming Loadholt replaces Cook) in four. So until the next generation of snot blowin’ big uglies line up and hit someone, this is the shortest window. I’ll give it three years average, with the big hits coming in the McKinnie and Hutch replacements. But assuming the replacements adequately fill in for the current crop, this will be one of the most stable units in the NFL for years to come.

So looking at the offense, the Minnesota Vikings are averaging about a three or four year window, but it has one huge caveat: effective, championship-caliber quarterback play. If the Vikings cannot get that from Jackson, Rosenfels, or somebody else, this will be a talented team that will not advance far in the playoffs.

If they do get it, you have to consider the Vikings on the short list of teams with legitimate championship aspirations.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Yeah, I'm Twittering

Follow intemperate thoughts and new blog posts here:

http://twitter.com/purplebuckeye

No, I don't Facebook. No, I'm not on MySpace. This is as about as technical as I get.

Now, enjoy the rest of your Mother's Day.

Oh, Happy Mother's Day, Mom!!

Saturday, May 9, 2009

My Last Favre Post Until He Signs or Stays Retired

The Brett Favre saga is sucking the oxygen out of the Vikings room, so let me pipe in on why, once and for all, the Vikings should sign him. And I promise, this will be the last I mention it until he either signs or stays retired.

There is one segment of the fanbase that wants nothing to do with Brett Favre, largely because he played for the arch rival Packers. They feel that if Favre were to take the Vikings to and win the Super Bowl, it would somehow be tainted, and all credit would go to Favre. Others think that cheering for Favre would be akin to rooting for the Taliban or Al Qaeda. The other segment of the non-Favre camp doesn't want to buy in and cheer for him because they fear he will throw an interception to lose to the Packers, or lose in the NFC championship, or God Forbid, the Super Bowl. I get it. Rivalry is an important thing in sports, and having a public enemy #1 is good for the sporting soul. But I’m north of 40, and have seen too much professional football tragedy as a Vikings fan to think this is the worst possible thing that could befall the franchise. Hell, Favre playing for the Vikings wouldn't crack the top 50. Favre throwing a soul crushing interception to lose to the Packers doesn't even make the top 25. There is onlt one Darkest Day in Vikings History, and it is the infamous 'Hail Mary' Game. For those of you too young to remember, get down on your knees right now and give thanks to God. For those of you who do remember, the sullen nodding of the head and involuntary grimace and twitching tell me you concur.

We were at my aunt and uncle’s in White Bear Lake. My Aunt, a church going, Sunday school teacher, dropped an F-bomb after the blatant offensive pass interference that robbed the Vikings of their destiny. My dad threw a beer bottle against my uncle’s wall, shattering it and staining the wall. My uncle cared not. No ne moved for 10 minutes, just staring at the TV. My uncle cursed the medical attendants that assisted the goddamn idiot referee who took the whisky bottle to the head. I can’t explain the anguish I feel every time I see that goddamn play. 33 years have not healed that wound, and another 50 will not, either. Ever. On the way home to Richfield we heard on the radio Fran Tarkenton’s dad had died during the game. I cried all the way home.

So worst case, Favre throws a soul crushing interception in either the NFC Championship or the Super Bowl, and I shut off the TV, numb and lifeless. Hey, I’ve been down that road with this team more than I care to remember. It's amost a badge of Honor at this point. ('Hey, I've been more haertbroken over the Vikings than you have!')

It still wouldn’t hit the top 5 in all time Vikings agony. And I will be back next season, convinced the Vikes are going to win it all.

Favre is one of the gretest quarterbacks of all time. At 40, he's still better than Sage or Tarvaris. He doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl; no one player does. But I think he has a better chance of taking the Vikings farther in the playoffs than either jackson or Rosenfels. Jackson folded like a wet cardboard box under the pressure of the Eagles defense and the post-season.

He makes the offense as a whole better, and demands that defenses play the Vikings honest. Teams will be forced to respect the pass, and unable to stuff the box with 8 or 9 guys, Adrian Peterson will be even better than he is now. When teams try to key on Peterson and stop him, Favre will have the ability to make them pay consistently. Can you say that about Jackson or Sage? He is able to read a defense and audible out of a bad play. Currently, the Vikings do that infrequently at best. If there are 9 guys stacked at or close to the line of scrimmage, the Vikings run into the teeth of that defense much like the Australian army did against the Turks at Gallipoli. And if you want to look at the stats, I'll compare any stats you want of Favre's against Sage or Tarvaris.

My Dad is 80 now, he’s lost a step, and his memory isn’t what it was. It was my Dad that gave me this unconditional love of the Minnesota Vikings, and nothing would please me more than watching a Vikings Super Bowl victory with him. And if Brett Favre is the quarterback that would lead them to that, and allow me to share that with my Dad before he leaves me, I will be forever indebted to Zygi Wilf, Brad Childress, and Brett Favre for allowing that to happen.
So if he signs with the Vikes, I’m buying me and my Dad matching Favre jerseys, and we’ll be whooping it up like Viking fanatics once again this fall.

Oh, and one more thing. Fuck Drew Pearson. Fuck Drew Pearson to Hell.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Mercenaries-R-Us

Let’s put our cards on the table here when it comes to Brett Favre and his desire to come to Minnesota. His reason for playing isn’t to play for the Vikings, it’s to play against the Packers. He hates Ted Thompson. He wants to stick it up Ted Thompson’s ass and break it off. Sideways. Twice. His is a completely selfish and mercenarial reason to come to Minnesota.

Brad Childress needs to win and make a deep playoff run to keep his job, at least I think so. He’s had incrementally better seasons in three years, and with solid drafting, smart trades, and good free agent acquisitions, the Vikings are poised to be able to do that. Except that they need a proven quarterback to take them on that run. Childress has said that he likes his quarterback situation, but Favre at age 40 is still better than Sagevaris Jacksonfels. So if he were to sign Favre, it would be for one reason and one reason only: To try and win the Super Bowl and prove he is as smart as he claims to be. His is a completely selfish and mercenarial reason to bring Favre to Minnesota.

Zygi Wilf needs a new stadium to keep the Vikings viable in the state of Minnesota. He has Adrian Peterson and little else. He needs that elusive ‘buzz’, and a guy like Favre with the NFC North backdrop is something that cannot be ignored. Would it be enough to finagle financing for a new stadium out of the State Legislature? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, his is a completely selfish and mercenarial reason to bring Favre to Minnesota.

As my good buddy Luft Krigare pointed out in his blog, I was all about Favre coming to Minnesota last season, but I have some reservations this year. But the bottom line is simple:

Do I want the Vikings to essentially hire a mercenary who excelled on a team I can’t stand come in and lead the team that I have loved since birth, and go all out to try and win a Super Bowl?

Yes. Once I separate the facts from the emotion, the fact for me is this: Brett Favre, as long as he is healthy, is better than Sagevaris Jacksonfels, and all the hand-wringing I have about team chemistry will be rendered moot on the first Favre to Harvin touchdown pass.