Saturday, April 25, 2009

Draft Day 1 Recap

Busy Saturday here in my little corner of the Internets. It started at five this morning when me and a couple of buddies went fishing out at Carlyle Lake. Got home just in time to take a nap as the draft kicked off, but woke up in time to see the Raiders set their franchise back another 25 years. They made it to the Super Bowl in this decade? Really?

Anyways, looking at day 1 of the draft, I like what the Vikings did, and although I'm sad to see that they haven't drafted any Buckeyes, neither did the Packers. To recap:

Oh Mercy, Percy!! I give Brad Childress and the Vikings a lot of credit for this pick. I liked and advocated for Percy Harvin on multiple Vikings message boards (yeah, multiple...I'm a total loser) because I thought he was the best athlete in the draft, and could fill multiple roles for the Vikes. When it came out that he was dancing with Mary Jane, I thought the Vikings had taken him off of their board, and no one would have ripped them for bypassing him and looking to offensive line or defensive back, consensus areas of need entering the draft.

But they didn't. They took him, and with it, they have taken on quite possibly the biggest boom or bust, feast or famine pick in recent Vikings memory. Harvin not only has off the field issues, but he has on the field injury concerns as well. Adrian Peterson had injury issues that caused a few people to question the pick, but that seems to have worked out all right.

What Harvin brings to the table is speed. Fast, blinding, holy-fuck-did-you-just-see-that speed.

Kind of like this (start at about 1:57).

If Brad Childress can harness that speed, put Harvin in favorable match ups, opposing defenses will either have to pick to stop Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin. If he can't, the Vikings will have a hard time rising to the level of an elite team, and Childress, with a lot of expectations on him and his team, will be out of a job.

They also addressed the right tackle position, which a lot of fans think was the weak link on the offensive line, and a lot of draft experts thought it would be a position addressed in round 1. Phil Loadholt, who is nearly 340 pounds of moving pissed off, will challenge Ryan Cook immiedately as the starting right tackle, and is great value for that deep in the second round.

For the Buckeyes, I was disapointed to see James Laurinaitis slip to the second round, but hey, he's now a St Louis Ram, so I will get to follow him closely in his post-Buckeye career. Malcolm Jenkins was about the only guy save Matthew Stafford to go where he was predicted to go, to New Orleans, Beanie Wells heads to the Arizona desert, and Brian Robiskie stays in Ohio.

Biggest surprises for me was seeing Ray Maualuga drop out of the first round, and the Jets moving up so far to draft Mark Sanchez. I think the Vikings had a about as good as a first day as the Raiders had bad. I can't imagine what it must feel like to be a Raider fan this evening. Michael Crabtree, who was on the board when your team selected Darius Hayward-Bey, is now just across the bay in San Francisco, while your team drafts the 2009 version of Troy WIlliamson. Then your team grabs a safety that wasn't even on the board of a lot of teams, by most accounts. Ouch.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Why I think the VIkes will go LB in Round 1

Okay, so after looking at all the draft stuff I can stand, I think the Vikes are going to go with a LB, I really do. Let me walk this logic backwards:

Percy Harvin is probably off the board, and Childress said before the draft last season, I think it was, that WR’s in general are really a crap shoot in the first round, and I agree, so I don’t see them going in that direction. RB is not a need, and I think the TOA doesn’t believe QB is. I must grudgingly give it up for Shiancoe, as he really emerged last season, so TE is off the board, eliminating all skill positions.

That leaves the o-line. Sullivan looks to be the next Matt Birk, and Herrera and Hutch are a pretty good guard tandem. McKinnie is locked in at LT, and I think with Ryan Cook you have what I call Tarvaris Jackson syndrome. Cook was a high round Childress pick, like Jackson, and Childress has a lot in terms of reputation on the line to see the kid succeed, much like Jackson, albeit not as much as he has invested with TJ. Many detractors think he was taken too high, like Jackson, and as a player, Cook has yet to achieve what the coaches envisioned him doing when drafted, much like Jackson. He’s also shown flashes of good play with maddening periods of mediocrity and inconsistency, also like Jackson. And I think Cook showed enough last year to warrant giving him ample opportunity to remain the RT, but he has got to cut down on his penalties.

On the d-line, DE appears to be set, especially with Kenechi Udeze coming back, which will be a huge emotional lift. DT looks good as well. After re-signing Jimmy Kennedy and Fred Evans, there’s really no room for a new guy. You can make an argument for DB, especially with Antoine Winfield getting up there, but they re-signed Benny Sapp, signed Carl Paymah as a FA, and already had decent depth for both CB and S. I can see adding a guy in the later rounds, but I don’t see DB as a first round pick, especially when you factor in who’s probably available.

That leaves LB. EJ’s coming off of an injury, Ben Leber is good, but is north of 30, and after Chad Greenway, there really isn’t anyone that can jump in and start. Erin Henderson? No. Heath Farwell? Good special teams guy, but not really. I mean, they had to bring Napoleon Harris back after EJ got hurt. Nap did a great job as a stopgap, but they let him go again. So LB is very thin after you get past the starters. Almost every mock draft I see has either James Laurinaitis, Ray Maualuga, or both available at that spot. Both are high character guys, both have great college pedigrees, and yeah, you think I want them to pick Laurinaitis because he’s a Buckeye, but he can also play on the outside, and he’s a local Minnesota kid. Childress hit the jackpot with the ‘local kid, Big 10 LB, high character guy’ trifecta with Greenway in 2006, and that has to be factored in as well.

So with everyone screaming for the Vikes to take a tackle, I think the Vikes mildly surprise some folks and go with either Maualuga or Laurinaitis. If they’re both on the board, it’s Laurinaitis.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Wrapping Up The Schedule

Continuing on with a game by game breakdown for the Vikes 2009 schedule:

Week 7: at Pittsburgh I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this game, because the Vikings will lose it. Remember my stunning outdoor grass on the road stat I impressed you with way back in week 1? Same thing applies here, except Pittsburgh ain’t Cleveland. Minnesota will turn the ball over a couple of times, Pittsburgh will get a double digit lead, and everyone in Minnesota will be pissed off that Mike Tomlin is coaching the Steelers and not the Vikings. What should piss them off is that Ben Roethlisberger is the quarterback of the Steelers, not the Vikings.

Week 8: at Green Bay I have to be honest with you, I’m not too impressed with any of the other teams in the NFC North this year. Aaron Rogers is one pulled ovary from the IR, their defense, outside of Charles Woodson and AJ Hawk really doesn’t impress me, and although their personnel are 4-3 type players, they’re switching to the 3-4. The Vikes still lose this game, because there’s no way Brad Childress could sweep the season series from Green Bay. Mike Tice could, but Brad Childress can’t. Vikes are 4-4, but when you consider 5 of 8 games were on the road it’s not a terrible record.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: Detroit By week 10, Detroit realizes that they’re, well, Detroit. Dan Orlovsky runs out of the end zone again, but the Vikes don’t allow this game to be decided on a safety. I have my issues with Brad Childress, but he is 3-0 after the bye week, beating Houston, Chicago on the road (something Mike Tice couldn’t do, BTW), and Seattle on the road. Vikes right the ship and start on a roll.

Week 11: Seattle Speaking of everyone’s favorite whiny fan base, the Semenhawks come to town for an obligatory ass beating. Seattle really is pissed off at Minnesota, and I can’t figure out why. Could it be because the Vikes front office made the Seahawks front office look like a bunch of bitches when they got Steve Hutchinson? And yes, Seattle fan will retort, that they did the same thing for Nate Burleson. Hmm, Hutch has been to three Pro Bowls and Burleson has about 950 yards receiving in three seasons. Which is about 50 less than he had in 2004 with the Vikes. Yep, you got us there. Maybe it’s because of the legal hit that EJ Henderson put on Matt Hasselback and knocked him out for awhile in 2006? Or maybe it’s the 95 yard TD run Chester Taylor had in that same game that pretty much sealed that game up for the Vikes. Maybe they’re just pissy because the sun never shines in that city. Who knows? Who cares? Vikes still win, because I think it will be the Seneca Wallace show by that point, and he’s just slightly better than Tarvaris Jackson.

Week 12: Chicago The Bears will be better because of Jay Cutler, but no one, outside of our friends at the Daily Norseman, have brought up the point that the Chicago Bear defense aged right in front of us last season, and they have done nothing to address that so far this off-season. And while the Bears have Cutler, they still don’t have anyone to get him the ball, so it will be a great test of the ‘Great QB’s Make Great Receivers’ theory, or it will validate the ‘Great Receivers Make Great QB’s’ theory. Devin Hester? Great return guy, mediocre receiver. This is the first meeting with the Cutler-lead Bears, yet we have finished up our seasonal tilts with both the Packers and Lions. Vikes win this home game and Adrian Peterson continues to make the Chicago Bears his personal play toy.

Week 13: at Arizona Last season the Vikes rolled into Arizona and took it to the future NFC champions. I mean, they really kicked their ass. But that was about 4 weeks before Larry Fitzgerald made a deal with Satan to elevate his game to Randy Moss in his prime levels. I take nothing away from the Cardinals because their run was a lot of fun to watch, but keep in mind they were still a 9-7 team in football’s worst division, but they got hot at the right time. This is an offense that matches up very well against the Viking defense. Arizona will have to pass, because they have no running game, and the Vikes stop the run better than anyone. With a front four of Allen, Udeze, Williams, and Williams, the great but immobile Kurt Warner will be in trouble early and often. Vikes win and are 8-4.

Week 14: Cincinnati Cincinnati sucks. Vikes are 9-4.

Week 15: at Carolina Hmm, tough game to call. It was the Carolina victory at home that helped the Vikes salvage their season and avoid an 0-3 collar to begin the year. Carolina’s a good team, but I can’t help but think that the 12-4 record they posted last season was a bit of an anomaly. Jake Delhomme had a good season, but his schizophrenic ‘Bad Jake’ returned just in time for the playoffs, and it seems he show up just when the Panthers can least afford for him to. I still think this is a tall order for a Vikes victory, though. Until they show they can consistently win tough road games I can’t be convinced they’ll win games like this.

Week 16: at Chicago Just reiterating from what I said above, it’s December and you’re probably playing in some nasty Chicago weather. Because as you know, Chicago is a ‘tough guy’ town. That means the Vikes need to run the ball. Hmm. The Bears defense isn’t what it was, the Vikes have the best running game in the NFL, and Adrian Peterson absolutely owns the Chicago Bears. Give me the Bears defense from three years ago, VIkes lose. Give me the 2009 Bears defense and a healthy Peterson, VIkes win.

Week 17: New York Giants I just don’t think the Giants will be a 12-4 team in 2009. They’re good, but I just get a 10-6 vibe about them. It’s a winnable game for the Vikes, and I think a bye, if not a #1 seed, will be on the line. Expect the Metrodome to be loud, and expect a Vikings win.

So there you have it. A snapshot look tells me this is an 11-5 team, but if Jackson or Rosenfels doesn’t pan out, it has an 8-8 or worse. I think the Vikes will do well this year, and if the quarterback play is just minimally better than what Gus Frerotte gave the team, 11-5 is very realistic.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Breaking Down the Vikings Schedule Week by Week

Scheduling Gods smile on the Vikes

In looking at the 2009 schedule for the Vikings, a couple of things caught my attention. One, that it’s a pretty decent schedule for a defending division winner, and two, the NFL age old conspiracy memo against the Vikes must not have been distributed to the scheduling office (I personally don’t believe there’s an actual memo, but I must play to my audience). The bye comes smack dab in the middle of the schedule, they finish off 5 of their last 8 games at home, and their slate of road games aren’t an NFL equivalent of the Bataan Death March. So let’s look at the formality of the 2009 regular season that we must unfortunately go through before the Vikings win the Super Bowl.

Week 1: at Cleveland— The bad news for Vikings fans is that recent history shows the Vikings have an anemic record with the road, outdoors, grass trifecta, going an embarrassing 8-18 (including playoffs) since 2004. Two of those ‘outdoor’ wins are at Houston and Arizona, retractable roof stadiums where yeah, it was outdoors on grass, but that’s kind of stretching it. Kind of like saying John McCain is a Republican stretching it. The good news is that although it’s a road, outdoor, grass game, it’s against the Cleveland Browns, who are really, really, terrible, which goes a long way to alleviating the disadvantage the Vikes have under those conditions. See 2008, Jaguars, Jacksonville. What the Browns lack in an offensive attack they make up for with a glaring inability to defend the run, something the Vikings excel at. Sagevaris Jacksonfels goes without an interception, but that’s because Adrian Peterson runs 55 times for 300 yards and 4 TD’s, as Brad Childress is reluctant to break out the passing component of the KAO. The Jacksonfels line for week 1: 0-0, 0 yards, 0 TD’s, 0 picks, solid game management. Vikes win and are 1-0. Brad Childress bronze statue plans are unveiled in the Minnesota Legislature.

Week 2: at Detroit—I’m not kidding when I say this is the game that worries me the most. Quit laughing, it really does. The Vikings have a maddening way of playing up or down to their competition, and this is a team that the Vikings usually beat, but it’s a lot tougher than it should be. Had it not been for Dan Orlovsky being an idiot, and a VERY generous pass interference call in the 4th quarter, the Vikings would have been the only win last year for the Lions. Kind of like the Vikings were for the Carolina Panthers a few years back. When you add the ‘new coach and attitude’ intangible into the equation…I hate to say it, but I think the Vikes lose this game. The Childress family is forced into hiding, entering the Federal Witness Protection Program.

Week 3: San Francisco—Vikings home opener against San Francisco. Our longtime antagonist Mike Singletary returns to the Metrodome, but this time, he’s coaching a pretty bad 49ers team, and he isn’t the middle linebacker for one of the greatest defenses of all time. His sideline stare still causes Sagevaris Jacksonfels to piddle himself midway through the second quarter, but The Greatest Running Back Ever not only stares down Singletary, but he causes him to…wait for it…BLINK! Singletary then drops his pants and tells Peterson to kiss it, but Peterson hears ‘kick it’, and he does. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D- San Francisco) files a motion to vacate the Vikings win and give it to the 49ers, saying that although the Vikings worked for the win, it should be taxed at 100% and given to those ‘less fortunate’. Norm Coleman sues somebody, saying he should be a Senator somewhere, and it’s Nancy Pelosi’s fault he isn’t. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell brokers a deal where the Vikings keep the victory and Pelosi is promised an NFL team in the Bay Area ‘real soon’. Coleman’s suit makes it to the Minnesota Supreme Court, where once again he’s told to pack sand…in Fargo, because it’s still dangerous up dere, donchaknow.

Week 4: Green Bay (Monday Night)—Monday Night, at home, against Green Bay. The Curious Case of Brad Childress finally unleashes the secret weapon that is Sagevaris Jacksonfels, who goes a torrid 3-11 for 11 yards and no touchdowns. But his play was ‘solid, no mistakes, kind of the flatline you look for in a good game manager’ TCCOBC says afterwards. About halfway through the first quarter, Kenechi Udeze and Jared Allen come up with a plan to ‘meet at the quarterback’, and Aaron Rogers pays the price. Brett Favre comes out of retirement, and the Monday Night crew phones John Madden, so he can call the game. Favre throws 11 interceptions, and John Madden declares that no one in the history of the game threw a prettier interception than Brett Favre, because Brett Favre just loves playing the game, and if he had 53 Brett Favre’s he’d have…605 interceptions a game…BOOM! Vikes win, the Childress’ come out of hiding, and the statue plans are back on, baby! Peterson is such a battering ram against the Packers, they just lay down in the fetal position and suck their thumbs early in the fourth quarter. Vikes are 3-1 and life looks pretty good in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Week 5: at St Louis—I will tell you now that I will be at this game, and my revered father will be with me. I mention this because at every single gut wrenching, soul crushing, life-sucking-out-of-you, open-a-vein-in-your-arm-and-wait-for-the-blissful-dark moment that has tortured Vikings fans since 1961, my Dad has been there right next to me. I was too young to remember Super Bowl IV, but I was there. Dad almost mistakenly threw me against the wall instead of the Grain Belt can when Otis Taylor beat Karl Kassulke to put the game out of reach. We were at my Uncle Russ’ in White Bear Lake during the Hail Mary game. We watched in horror from the comfort of our Richfield living room as the Vikes lost Super Bowl VIII, IX, and XI. He tried to get his mind off of the SB XI loss by helping me build a soapbox derby race car for Cub Scouts after the game. Let’s just say if you picked power tools, Grain Belt beer, and a Super Bowl loss in your disaster trifecta at Canterbury Downs, you’re a winner! Car didn’t get built, but a lot of frustration was let out on that poor piece of balsa wood. Dad only has three fingers on one hand now, but god damnit, it was worth it. (Just kidding on the three fingers part). In the 1987 NFC Championship, we watched from his home in Columbus, Ohio, with me taking leave to be there. For Wide Left, we commiserated on the phone the whole game, he in retirement in Florida, me stationed in Alabama. When my phone bill came, I was billed an extra $850 surcharge for the excessive use of the word ‘fuck’. In the Nate Poole game, Dad was visiting me over Christmas, and we took in the game at a local sports bar. For a little guy, he can sure talk some shit to Packer fans half his age and twice his size, and my face almost cashed that check. Nothing like dragging a pissed off 70-something guy out of a bar while trying to avoid an ass beating. I’ve never cornered an angry badger, but I imagine it’s similar. Dad assures me it would have been a character builder. For me, not him. For him, it would have been funny. The only reason that I mention this tortured history is because we will both be at the game, live and in person. That can only mean bad shit will happen. Adrian Peterson will blow out a knee, Jared Allen’s arm will fall off, and Brad Childress will be given a lifetime contract and 50% ownership in the team. At the conclusion of the game, there will be a press conference to announce that the team will move to Pierre, SD, at the end of the season, because, well, there’s a better chance of getting a stadium there than there than in Minneapolis. Vikes are a crushing 3-2, and I'm pretty sure my Dad finishes the character building exercise he started for me at the end of the Nate Poole game. We are in the most dangerous city in America, after all. And my character needs some buildin'.

Week 6: Baltimore—Matt Birk’s homecoming will be an emotional one. Birk was one of my favorite players, but he now wears the purple of the Baltimore Ravens, so fuck him. So much for emotion. Kevin and Pat Williams make him their Scandanavian bitch, and the Vikes roll. At 4-2, Vikes get their mojo back, and am discharged from the hospital the Saturday before, character better than ever.

I'll add a few more games as the days go by, but right now I'm too pissed off at Alfonso Soriano, Chris Perez, and the Cardinals front office for not getting a decent closer in the off season.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Around the Circuit

Vikings: Looks like the Vikings, as with most NFL teams, are hunkering down and are focusing in on the draft, now less than two weeks away. Although many fans might disagree, the Vikings feel that their quarterback situation was adequately addressed during free agency, and Sagevaris Jacksonfels is their guy. So, what direction do the Vikings go? I was pretty high on Percy Harvin until revelations hit the presses about a positive drug test (high, get it?) at the NFL combine. Oh, MERCY Percy! (If you’ve never heard U of F radio announcer Mick Hurbert call a game, it’s a treat. Oh, my!) Anyways, if recent track record is any indication, there’s a good chance Harvin has been crossed off the Vikings draft board, along with 77 other turds, malcontents, or injury risks. They’ve been red-dotted, much in the same way the Navy Seals red-dotted the Somali pirates, the AAA affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As much grief as Brad Childress received for his drafting of Tarvaris Jackson, the quality of Vikings drafts has been as good as anyone in the NFL since they bottomed out with Mike Tice’s last draft in 2005, with not one, but two first round busts in Troy Williamson and Erasmus James. 2006 brought Chad Greenway, Cedric Griffin, Ryan Cook, and Ray Edwards. Greenway and Griffin have become key components for a top notch defense, and Cook has become a false start machine at RT. Seriously, in fairness to Cook, the kid never played tackle before the NFL, and he managed to beat out two veteran NFL tackles to win the job. He’s no All-Pro, but he’s not terrible, either. Give him a little slack. 2007 brought us Purple Jesus, Marcus McCauley, Brian Robison, and Sidney Rice. Rice had a promising rookie season and emerged as a serious red zone threat. He was slowed by a knee injury last season and never looked comfortable, but I think he has the ability to be a solid NFL receiver. Robison and Edwards rotated in at both defensive end positions, and have provided quality depth in Kenechi Udeze’s absence, combining for 9.5 and 7.5 sacks in two seasons. 2008 was a draft that was highlighted by the Jared Allen trade. It was costly, yes, but it netted…Jared…Allen. With their remaining picks, the Vikings drafted Tyrell Johnson in the second round, who looks to take over in the secondary for the now departed Darren Sharper. They also snagged backup QB JD Booty and the heir apparent at center in John Sullivan, a 6th rounder who will try to fill some might big shoes of another 6th round center that anchored the Vikings line for 10 years or so.

So all in all, I have no worries in the Vikings ability to manage the draft. I expect a starter or two, and quality throughout. It has become the trademark for Childress, Spielman, and Studwell, and I tip my cap to them.

Cardinals: It’s only one week, 7 games, making it a small sampling size. But I like this team. With all of the injuries last season, the Cardinals won 86 games. They were in the thick of the pennant race until September, with a patchwork rotation, bad middle relief, and no closer. The bullpen is better, and if Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright can stay healthy, this team will win the division. If Adrian Peterson is the Purple Jesus, Albert Pujols is the Red Jesus, and that was apparent again on Saturday. He’s just Da Mang. With all the angst about Skip Schumaker transitioning from the outfield to second base, he seems to be doing pretty good. I think it’s early to proclaim him a gold glove winner, but he’s made some sparkling defensive plays, and has handled the double play pivot with no serious issues to this point. His hitting hasn’t suffered yet, either, as some thought would happen with such a fielding paradigm shift. The angst over the closer’s role is a valid one. I can’t remember the dreaded closer by committee ever working over the course of a season, but if anyone can put his players in a favorable match up, it’s LaRussa. If Jason Motte can’t handle the role, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chris Perez come back up to the big club to see what he can do. He showed promise last year, and has started off strong down in Memphis.

It’s gonna be a fun year in the ‘Lou.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Well, That Was a Kick in the Junk

For everyone that is laughing at the Bears for giving up a lot of draft picks for Jay Cutler, and getting an alleged turd in return, I ask you this—would you like Cutler over Sagevaris Jacksonfels? I know I would. I understand that it was a steep price to pay, and the Vikings, after paying a steep price for Jared Allen last season, couldn’t do another trade like that two years in a row, but did it have to be the Bears?

There are few certainties in my life as I age; sometimes those truisms are all you can hold on to in tumultuous times. For example, the annual St Louis Cardinals devastating shoulder injury has occurred, this time taking out Troy Glaus until the All Star game. Whew, glad that’s out of the way. Ohio State always has great running backs. France gets their ass kicked in battle. Illinois politics is corrupt. The Chicago Bears have quarterbacks that are terrible.

You see, the one thing that’s held back the Bears over the years is that they couldn’t find a quarterback that was NFL caliber, which would be okay if they weren’t an NFL franchise. They even made it to the Super Bowl with a great defense and a quarterback named Rex the Wonder Dog. Had they had Jay Cutler on that team, they quite possibly would have won that game.

The Bears have a lot of similarities to the Vikings offensively—good running game, an emerging tight end, and a HUGE question at quarterback. Their wide receivers are bad, but I can expect them to get better simply for the fact they have a better QB throwing to them. The Bears were 9-7 with an average defense and bad quarterback play. Is Cutler worth 2 wins? Yeah, I think he is when you look at his stats and realize that he went 8-8 on a team with a defense that’s slightly worse than some good high school programs. Get a proven WR, like Torry Holt, give him a good running game that will allow Devin Hester to make some plays, and all of a sudden the Bears are a thoroughly dangerous team.

But that dominating defense that is the Bears calling card slipped a little bit last year, and they’re a year older. The Bears have a much better quarterback than the Vikings, but the Vikes still have the better defense, running game, and receivers, making them the more complete team.

If Sage "We Worked on That Trade For Two Years" Rosenfels improves the quarterback play minimally, by just a win, they win the division, but the Bears will be hot on their heels all season long.