In the last few seasons, the Minnesota Vikings have done an extremely good job in free agency (Steve Hutchinson, Bernard Berrian), the draft (Adrian Peterson), and trade (Jared Allen) to address areas where the Vikings needed to improve to get them to the cusp of a Superbowl championship.
But for all the effort in trying to upgrade the roster, the quarterback position has been the one area that has been the weak link throughout the Brad Childress era. Entering free agency, the Vikes need to make a splash and add some sizzle and buzz to the offseason. Hopefully that will build some 'Minnesota Momentum' towards a new stadium and the long elusive Lombardi trophy, and to get free agency jump started, the Vikings capped two years of effort minutes into by trading for...wait for it...wait for it a little more...Sage Rosenfels.
Let me say that again so it can appropriately sink in. The Minnesota Vikings, a quarterback away from seriously contending for the Superbowl, spent two years in trading for Sage Rosenfels.
Sizzle? Snap...crackle...pop.
Look, I know that every quarterback option out there has negatives. Kurt Warner is a one or two year option. Ditto Brett Favre, and he's probalby really retired this time. Matt Cassel is probably the best combination of talent and youth, but it would more than likely require a Jared Allen-type trade to acquire him, and the Vikings did that last year for...Jared...Allen. According to Adam Caplan of scout.com, Matt Hasselbeck is damaged goods. Donovan McNabb might be a three or four year guy, but has McNabb, in a similar situation in Philadelhia (good/great defense, solid offense, mostly pedestrian receivers) ever win the Supebowl? And it looks like he's mended fences in Philly, anyways.
But Sage Rosenfels? Sage Rosenfels? Really? He's the answer? If he is the answer, what, pray tell, might the question be?
The positives: He's from Maquoketa, Iowa, about 15-20 miles where almost my entire family is from and still currently live, so he comes from good stock. He has shown ability, but like another quarterback currently on the Vikings roster, he has been maddeningly inconsistent when given an opportunity.
The negatives: He was on the wrong end of one of the most-played highlights from last year, and stop me if you've heard this before: He's a career journeyman, north of 30, a very cerebral, flat line guy that's just expected to manage the game and play mistake free.
With 24 career TD passes, and 23 career fumbles.
Rosenfels is the biggest gamble of Wilf's tenure, both on the field and off, because the Vikings are at a critical juncture in team history. They are tantalizingly close to a serious championship run, and if successful, they will go a long way to securing a new facility in Minneapolis for them to play in for the next generation of Viking fans. Failure to go deep in the playoffs will not help that effort, and a series ofmediocre 8-8 seasons in the near future could be the death blow for the team's future existence in Minnesota.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Matty Birk Sleeps WIth the Fishes
I generally try not to get too emotionally attached to guys who play for the Vikings anymore. This is not the relative static roster, give or take a few role players, of the Purple People Eaters of my youth, so attaching emotional investment for a guy that will be gone in about five or six years can kind of suck. Free agency has changed the dynamic of pro football, and overall that’s a pretty good thing. As you grow up you realize that pro sports is a bottom line business, and that teams undergo significant upheaval on a regular basis. But from time to time, there’s a player or two that I get attached to, an underdog or a blue-collar type guy that you just love to root for, because you can identify with that person in some sort of way.
Matt Birk has been that guy for me. I don’t identify with him because we went to Harvard. Hell, the only way I’d find myself in Harvard would be by getting lost looking for a strip joint in Beantown proper. I don’t identify with Birk athletically. I was probably the worst starting quarterback in the history of the Ohio High School Athletic Association. I mean, there’s bad, there’s craptastic, and then there was me, hovering somewhere below the high school version of Spergon Wynn. I don’t even relate to Birk physiologically. Where Birk is probably 310 pounds of twisted steel, I’m 210 pounds of chewed bubble gum, and growing at a rate that makes the stimulus bill look miniscule.
But I do relate to Birk in this regard: He got to live his dream, and he worked hard to get where he is. When I was a kid, I wanted to play for the Vikings, my hometown team, but I realized pretty early on that I better adjust my expectations. I did, and made the most out of a 20 plus career in the military. Birk was fortunate enough to get drafted by the Vikings in 1998, but didn’t play. He was primarily a practice squad guy, but hard work paid off, and in 2000 he took over as the team’s starting center, and has been one of the few positive faces for this team in the early part of the 21st century, as they navigated the through Randy “I Made Al Harris My Bitch” Moss, Daunte “I’m a one knee, $10 million QB” Culpepper, Mike “I got Super Bowl tickets” Tice, and the rough waters of the Love Boat.
But now, it looks like Matty B will sleep with the fishes, at least as a Minnesota Viking. Don Vito Childress seems like he wants to move in another direction and get rid of Birk. Hey, it happens all the time in the NFL, but this one hurts a little more. For one, I like Birk, for reasons stated above. Secondly, there really doesn’t seem to be an experienced backup that is ready made to move into Birk’s spot…but we said that about Birk when he took over for Pro Bowler Jeff Christy, so maybe there is. But the part that annoys me is that Chilly is whacking him not for a drop in performance, but because Birk and the coach “disagree philosophically” or something similar. I can just imagine how that conversation went down.
Matt Birk: Coach, our offense sucks, and we need to do something about it. Adrian’s a once in a generation type back, and our defense rocks, but if we can’t throw the ball and keep using AP as a battering ram, we won’t get anywhere, our defense will get old, and our golden opportunity to bring a Super Bowl championship to the good people of Minnesota will evaporate.
Brad Childress: Our offense doesn’t suck. Our offense kicks ass. Didn’t you see my final press conference in 2006?
MB: Really? You run left on first down, run left on second down, throw a screen pass on third down, and then we punt. How is that kick ass? You’re more predictable than a porn movie plot. Guys who were terrible high school quarterbacks know what you’re going to call 80% of the time. Don’t you think if some idiot that writes a little-known blog knows what coming an NFL defensive coordinator might have a clue?
BC: We have Adrian Peterson. And I know quarterbacks. We kick ass.
MB: You’re playing checkers, and everyone else is playing chess.
BC: We had a 99 yard touchdown pass.
MB: Even a blind squirrel can find a nut, coach.
BC: Our offense kicks ass.
MB: No it doesn’t, unless you masturbate to Big 10 football game film from the 1970’s.
BC: I guess we disagree philosophically. Pack your shit.
So Birk crossed the Godfather, and the Godfather took his revenge. Godspeed to you, Matty B. Wherever you land, may it be on your feet, over a football, on an offensive line that wins the Super Bowl.
Just don’t piss off your next boss, okay? (Watch this last link if you're at work...it's the Christian Bale rant...NSFW)
Matt Birk has been that guy for me. I don’t identify with him because we went to Harvard. Hell, the only way I’d find myself in Harvard would be by getting lost looking for a strip joint in Beantown proper. I don’t identify with Birk athletically. I was probably the worst starting quarterback in the history of the Ohio High School Athletic Association. I mean, there’s bad, there’s craptastic, and then there was me, hovering somewhere below the high school version of Spergon Wynn. I don’t even relate to Birk physiologically. Where Birk is probably 310 pounds of twisted steel, I’m 210 pounds of chewed bubble gum, and growing at a rate that makes the stimulus bill look miniscule.
But I do relate to Birk in this regard: He got to live his dream, and he worked hard to get where he is. When I was a kid, I wanted to play for the Vikings, my hometown team, but I realized pretty early on that I better adjust my expectations. I did, and made the most out of a 20 plus career in the military. Birk was fortunate enough to get drafted by the Vikings in 1998, but didn’t play. He was primarily a practice squad guy, but hard work paid off, and in 2000 he took over as the team’s starting center, and has been one of the few positive faces for this team in the early part of the 21st century, as they navigated the through Randy “I Made Al Harris My Bitch” Moss, Daunte “I’m a one knee, $10 million QB” Culpepper, Mike “I got Super Bowl tickets” Tice, and the rough waters of the Love Boat.
But now, it looks like Matty B will sleep with the fishes, at least as a Minnesota Viking. Don Vito Childress seems like he wants to move in another direction and get rid of Birk. Hey, it happens all the time in the NFL, but this one hurts a little more. For one, I like Birk, for reasons stated above. Secondly, there really doesn’t seem to be an experienced backup that is ready made to move into Birk’s spot…but we said that about Birk when he took over for Pro Bowler Jeff Christy, so maybe there is. But the part that annoys me is that Chilly is whacking him not for a drop in performance, but because Birk and the coach “disagree philosophically” or something similar. I can just imagine how that conversation went down.
Matt Birk: Coach, our offense sucks, and we need to do something about it. Adrian’s a once in a generation type back, and our defense rocks, but if we can’t throw the ball and keep using AP as a battering ram, we won’t get anywhere, our defense will get old, and our golden opportunity to bring a Super Bowl championship to the good people of Minnesota will evaporate.
Brad Childress: Our offense doesn’t suck. Our offense kicks ass. Didn’t you see my final press conference in 2006?
MB: Really? You run left on first down, run left on second down, throw a screen pass on third down, and then we punt. How is that kick ass? You’re more predictable than a porn movie plot. Guys who were terrible high school quarterbacks know what you’re going to call 80% of the time. Don’t you think if some idiot that writes a little-known blog knows what coming an NFL defensive coordinator might have a clue?
BC: We have Adrian Peterson. And I know quarterbacks. We kick ass.
MB: You’re playing checkers, and everyone else is playing chess.
BC: We had a 99 yard touchdown pass.
MB: Even a blind squirrel can find a nut, coach.
BC: Our offense kicks ass.
MB: No it doesn’t, unless you masturbate to Big 10 football game film from the 1970’s.
BC: I guess we disagree philosophically. Pack your shit.
So Birk crossed the Godfather, and the Godfather took his revenge. Godspeed to you, Matty B. Wherever you land, may it be on your feet, over a football, on an offensive line that wins the Super Bowl.
Just don’t piss off your next boss, okay? (Watch this last link if you're at work...it's the Christian Bale rant...NSFW)
Monday, February 9, 2009
Draft Pick Value
It seems to me that draft picks are more over-valued now than at anytime in my 40+ years of following professional football. When that happened for the NFL as a whole, I can't say for sure, but I think this might have had something to do with it. For the Vikings, it came sometime after the trade for this man. Now that Matt Cassel has been franchised by the New England Patriots, it seems that at a minimum, the Vikings will have to give up a first round draft pick. If they go the traditional route of the non-exclusive franchise tag, they can sign him to an offer sheet and give up two first round picks, or maybe they can do a sign and trade and negotiate and give up something less. I doubt the Vikings want to go three years without a first round draft pick; long term that's not a smart play. But let's say they get some deal worked out that involves this year's first round draft pick, would that be worth it?
To answer that question, I asked a couple of other questions. If the Vikings did trade a first round pick for Cassel, how long would I expect him to be wearing purple? He'll be 27 for the 2009 season, and realistically, most players start dropping off due to injury or ability at about age 33, give or take. So I should reasonably expect 6 years of productive service. What's productive service? Well, since it's hard to quantify when comparing players at different positions, let's call it starting over 66% of the games your team played, just as a starting point. First round draft picks are expected, in this day and age, to come in and start right away, and guys tyou give up for a first round draft choice are as well, so I think 2/3 of the games started over a six year period is reasonable. I then looked at the draft slot of the Vikings in the 2009 first round, which is pick number 22, and looked at every first round player drafted from 2000-2004 at spot 22 or later and determined how many years they stayed with the team that drafted them, how many games they started, and whether or not there were any Pro Bowl appearances. I have completely disregarded salaries for these players, because really, how does that matter? There are always 53 players on a team every year, and every team is under the cap. Does it matter if we think someone gets overpaid? (That was a rhetorical question...it doesn't).
Between 2000-2004, there were only 53 total picks taken from spot 22-31 or spot 22-32 ('00-'01 had only 31 teams). Of those 53 picks, the average time spent with their original team was 4.7 years. 49%, or 26 of those picks, could be considered starters or guys that gave productive service. 10 of those players, or 18%, made All-Pro with the team that drafted them. So realistically, you can trade that draft pick, and you've got a 50-50 shot of the guy even panning out, and chances are if he does pan out he won't be around for more than five years. If you're really lucky, you'll find a diamond in the rough that will develop into a Pro Bowl caliber player.
So what does this mean? Well, primarily, it means I killed a lot of time doing this research when I could have been doing something productive. But for the four of you that look to this as your football salvation, I think it means that you make the trade. If you really think that this guy is the missing piece, and immediately upgrades your team, do it. If you don't, at best, you've got a 50-50 shot of getting the right guy regardless of position, and other than Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, quarterbacks aren't first year salvations.
That said, you can't do another Herschel deal. Two first round draft picks is very steep, and will impact the Vikings being able to replenish the roster with quality athletes. As much as a trade for a quality player helps a team, the majority of your team roster is still filled by the draft, so if you keep doing these type of deals, somewhere along the line you get to a point of diminishing returns. The Jared Allen deal was steep, it was worth it, but you can't do an Allen deal three or four years in a row. It was, for the most part, a one year impact, with the exception of a third round pick in this upcoming draft. Allen lead the NFL in sacks, and his added pressure helped cut the defense pass yards allowed from 31 overall to 18 overall. Could that kind of production come from a guy at the lower end of round one? Maybe, but as even as good as Childress, Spielman, and Studwell have been, that would be a long shot. Can you trade off two more first round picks? I don't think so, but another Allen type trade is very doable, in my estimation.
Just don't let Mike Lynn negotiate the deal.
To answer that question, I asked a couple of other questions. If the Vikings did trade a first round pick for Cassel, how long would I expect him to be wearing purple? He'll be 27 for the 2009 season, and realistically, most players start dropping off due to injury or ability at about age 33, give or take. So I should reasonably expect 6 years of productive service. What's productive service? Well, since it's hard to quantify when comparing players at different positions, let's call it starting over 66% of the games your team played, just as a starting point. First round draft picks are expected, in this day and age, to come in and start right away, and guys tyou give up for a first round draft choice are as well, so I think 2/3 of the games started over a six year period is reasonable. I then looked at the draft slot of the Vikings in the 2009 first round, which is pick number 22, and looked at every first round player drafted from 2000-2004 at spot 22 or later and determined how many years they stayed with the team that drafted them, how many games they started, and whether or not there were any Pro Bowl appearances. I have completely disregarded salaries for these players, because really, how does that matter? There are always 53 players on a team every year, and every team is under the cap. Does it matter if we think someone gets overpaid? (That was a rhetorical question...it doesn't).
Between 2000-2004, there were only 53 total picks taken from spot 22-31 or spot 22-32 ('00-'01 had only 31 teams). Of those 53 picks, the average time spent with their original team was 4.7 years. 49%, or 26 of those picks, could be considered starters or guys that gave productive service. 10 of those players, or 18%, made All-Pro with the team that drafted them. So realistically, you can trade that draft pick, and you've got a 50-50 shot of the guy even panning out, and chances are if he does pan out he won't be around for more than five years. If you're really lucky, you'll find a diamond in the rough that will develop into a Pro Bowl caliber player.
So what does this mean? Well, primarily, it means I killed a lot of time doing this research when I could have been doing something productive. But for the four of you that look to this as your football salvation, I think it means that you make the trade. If you really think that this guy is the missing piece, and immediately upgrades your team, do it. If you don't, at best, you've got a 50-50 shot of getting the right guy regardless of position, and other than Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, quarterbacks aren't first year salvations.
That said, you can't do another Herschel deal. Two first round draft picks is very steep, and will impact the Vikings being able to replenish the roster with quality athletes. As much as a trade for a quality player helps a team, the majority of your team roster is still filled by the draft, so if you keep doing these type of deals, somewhere along the line you get to a point of diminishing returns. The Jared Allen deal was steep, it was worth it, but you can't do an Allen deal three or four years in a row. It was, for the most part, a one year impact, with the exception of a third round pick in this upcoming draft. Allen lead the NFL in sacks, and his added pressure helped cut the defense pass yards allowed from 31 overall to 18 overall. Could that kind of production come from a guy at the lower end of round one? Maybe, but as even as good as Childress, Spielman, and Studwell have been, that would be a long shot. Can you trade off two more first round picks? I don't think so, but another Allen type trade is very doable, in my estimation.
Just don't let Mike Lynn negotiate the deal.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Super Bowl Thoughts and Recruiting
Hello again. Before we get to my recruiting thoughts, I want to take a minute to talk about the Super Bowl. First of all, I was quite impressed with the game, the telecast, Madden and Michaels, and The Boss was awesome for a halftime show, but I’m a Springsteen fan, so probably no surprise there. And by the way, his 12 minute halftime show was infinitely better than the three hour disaster he gave here in St Louis in October, but I digress. There was one thing that really bugged me about the game, though: The officiating was horrid, and for the greatest sports league in the greatest country in the world, that’s a problem. Would full time refs help? Maybe, maybe not. I’m still not convinced having guys on the payroll all year long are going to make a difference. I mean, do you want them breaking down their performances in March? How does that make them better? No, what makes them better is fines or termination for continually sloppy officiating.
I didn’t really have any particular dog in the fight; I tend to cheer for the underdog in games that I have no vested interest, and I really like Kurt Warner. There’s still a lot of warm feelings for him in the Land of the Arch, and it’s kind of rubbed off on me. That said, with former Vikings Defensive Coordinator Mike Tomlin and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes on the Steelers sideline, I wasn’t at all upset to see them holding the Lombardi at the end of the game. Thanks, Santonio, for making Buckeye Nation so proud! Brought back fond memories of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and the 2005 version of The Game up in Ann Arbor.
Okay, let’s talk recruiting. I’ve made disclaimers in the past that for the most part, I don’t know beans about recruiting, and after doing some anecdotal research that I’m going to share in just a minute, I don’t think most experts do, either. Ranking recruiting classes before the ink dries on the letter of intent has become the college equivalent of handing out draft grades less than 24 hours after Mr. Irrelevant gets his 15 minutes of fame. I’m going to use Scout.com’s draft rankings and look at the past few Ohio State classes to try and substantiate my argument. My point is to not say that one player was terrible and/or over-rated and another is under-rated, but simply to say it’s asinine to rack and stack 17 and 18 year old kids and proclaim them to be either this or that before they play a game in college.
In 2002, the Ohio State recruiting class was 24 strong, and was considered by many to be Jim Tressel’s best class prior to this 2009 class that is about to sign. Among the 24 recruits were 3 5-star recruits, 13 4-star recruits, and 4 3-star recruits. The three five star recruits were Maurice Clarett, Mike Kudla, and Mike D’Andrea. Clarett, well…tragic story of epic proportions, and had it not ended the way it did, was well on his way to becoming an all-time great. The Buckeyes were just a different team, with a different attitude, when he was in there. Sigh. Mike D’Andrea never panned out, battling numerous knee injuries before ending his playing career in 2006. Mike Kudla had a good senior season after overcoming injuries, a position change from LB to DE, and a bizarre, life-threatening disease that nearly killed him in 2003. So out of those three “can’t miss” guys, Clarett was a horrid miss, D’Andrea was a miss, and Kudla ended on a very respectable note, but didn’t do it for his whole career. Most of the four star guys were pretty good, among them the aforementioned Holmes, Bobby Carpenter, Nate Salley, and eventual Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. But for every Smith there’s a Justin Zwick, a guy that never seemed to get comfortable playing in the harsh spotlight that is Ohio State football. Then there’s one star recruit Nick Mangold, who went on to become one of the better centers in recent memory, a first round draft pick, and will be going to the Pro Bowl.
2003 had one five star guy, Donte Whittner. Yeah, that seemed about right. Whittner had a very good career in Columbus and was a first round pick of the Buffalo Bills. 4 star recruit Luis Irizrry, however, couldn’t saty out of trouble and is in 1-AA. Ashton Youbouty and Kirk Barton were only three star prospects, but sere solid starters and contributors their entire careers.
2005 had a 2 star WR in Brian Robiskie and a 3 star LB in James Laurinaitis turn out to be pretty outstanding, and both ended up playing at least one star above what they were ranked. Maurice Wells was considered one of the hot 4 star RB prospects when recruited, but could never crack the starting lineup, even given every opportunity to do so.
And the list goes on. And it just isn’t Ohio State, this happens with every recruiting class at every school. Except, of course, Notre Dame. Their prospects are all the greatest ever, because they play in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. And don’t give Charlie Weiss a month to gameplan, because he’ll give up 600 yards of total offense in the Fiesta Bowl.
So just keep things in perspective when the 'experts' sdtart proclaiming one thing or the other about a particular recruiting class. Unless, of course, they sing the praises of Ohio State and how gifted, talented, athletic, and fast everyone is.
That will all be true. Enjoy national signing day.
I didn’t really have any particular dog in the fight; I tend to cheer for the underdog in games that I have no vested interest, and I really like Kurt Warner. There’s still a lot of warm feelings for him in the Land of the Arch, and it’s kind of rubbed off on me. That said, with former Vikings Defensive Coordinator Mike Tomlin and former Buckeye Santonio Holmes on the Steelers sideline, I wasn’t at all upset to see them holding the Lombardi at the end of the game. Thanks, Santonio, for making Buckeye Nation so proud! Brought back fond memories of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and the 2005 version of The Game up in Ann Arbor.
Okay, let’s talk recruiting. I’ve made disclaimers in the past that for the most part, I don’t know beans about recruiting, and after doing some anecdotal research that I’m going to share in just a minute, I don’t think most experts do, either. Ranking recruiting classes before the ink dries on the letter of intent has become the college equivalent of handing out draft grades less than 24 hours after Mr. Irrelevant gets his 15 minutes of fame. I’m going to use Scout.com’s draft rankings and look at the past few Ohio State classes to try and substantiate my argument. My point is to not say that one player was terrible and/or over-rated and another is under-rated, but simply to say it’s asinine to rack and stack 17 and 18 year old kids and proclaim them to be either this or that before they play a game in college.
In 2002, the Ohio State recruiting class was 24 strong, and was considered by many to be Jim Tressel’s best class prior to this 2009 class that is about to sign. Among the 24 recruits were 3 5-star recruits, 13 4-star recruits, and 4 3-star recruits. The three five star recruits were Maurice Clarett, Mike Kudla, and Mike D’Andrea. Clarett, well…tragic story of epic proportions, and had it not ended the way it did, was well on his way to becoming an all-time great. The Buckeyes were just a different team, with a different attitude, when he was in there. Sigh. Mike D’Andrea never panned out, battling numerous knee injuries before ending his playing career in 2006. Mike Kudla had a good senior season after overcoming injuries, a position change from LB to DE, and a bizarre, life-threatening disease that nearly killed him in 2003. So out of those three “can’t miss” guys, Clarett was a horrid miss, D’Andrea was a miss, and Kudla ended on a very respectable note, but didn’t do it for his whole career. Most of the four star guys were pretty good, among them the aforementioned Holmes, Bobby Carpenter, Nate Salley, and eventual Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. But for every Smith there’s a Justin Zwick, a guy that never seemed to get comfortable playing in the harsh spotlight that is Ohio State football. Then there’s one star recruit Nick Mangold, who went on to become one of the better centers in recent memory, a first round draft pick, and will be going to the Pro Bowl.
2003 had one five star guy, Donte Whittner. Yeah, that seemed about right. Whittner had a very good career in Columbus and was a first round pick of the Buffalo Bills. 4 star recruit Luis Irizrry, however, couldn’t saty out of trouble and is in 1-AA. Ashton Youbouty and Kirk Barton were only three star prospects, but sere solid starters and contributors their entire careers.
2005 had a 2 star WR in Brian Robiskie and a 3 star LB in James Laurinaitis turn out to be pretty outstanding, and both ended up playing at least one star above what they were ranked. Maurice Wells was considered one of the hot 4 star RB prospects when recruited, but could never crack the starting lineup, even given every opportunity to do so.
And the list goes on. And it just isn’t Ohio State, this happens with every recruiting class at every school. Except, of course, Notre Dame. Their prospects are all the greatest ever, because they play in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. And don’t give Charlie Weiss a month to gameplan, because he’ll give up 600 yards of total offense in the Fiesta Bowl.
So just keep things in perspective when the 'experts' sdtart proclaiming one thing or the other about a particular recruiting class. Unless, of course, they sing the praises of Ohio State and how gifted, talented, athletic, and fast everyone is.
That will all be true. Enjoy national signing day.
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